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Rational-expectations whiplash

Uploaded: Mar 15, 2017

Efstathios Avdis, Efstathios Avdis, Efstathios Avdis, Masahiro Watanabe, Masahiro Watanabe

We present a financial market with investors who have nested private information. Small perturbations of price informativeness, originating from fat-finger errors or algorithmic glitches of well-informed investors, can trigger an oscillating shock throughout the economy that destabilizes the feedback loop...

Bank capital and the composition of credit

Uploaded: Feb 1, 2017

Marcus Opp

We propose a general equilibrium framework to analyze the cross-sectional distribution of credit and its exposure to shocks to the financial system, such as changes to bank capital, capital requirements, and interest rates. We characterize how over- and underinvestment in...

Risk Preferences and the Macro Announcement Premium

Uploaded: Jan 6, 2017

Hengjie Ai, Ravi Bansal, Ravi Bansal

The paper develops a theory for equity premium around macroeconomic announcements. Stock returns realized around pre-scheduled macroeconomic announcements, such as the employment report and the FOMC statements, account for 55% of the market equity premium during the 1961-2014 period, and...

A Dynamic Model of Optimal Creditor Dispersion

Uploaded: Dec 30, 2016

Hongda Zhong

Firms often choose to raise capital from multiple creditors even though doing so may lead to inefficient liquidation caused by coordination failure. Potential coordination failure can, however, improve a firm’s incentive to repay its debt, thus increasing its debt capacity....

Credit Ratings: Strategic Issuer Disclosure and Optimal Screening

Uploaded: Dec 28, 2016

Uday Rajan

We study a model in which an issuer can manipulate information obtained by a credit rating agency (CRA) seeking to screen and rate its financial claim. Better CRA screening leads to a lower probability of obtaining a high rating but...

Alternating-offer Bargaining with the Global Games Information Structure

Uploaded: Dec 28, 2016

Anton Tsoy

This paper studies frequent-offer limits of perfect Bayesian equilibria in the alternating-offer bilateral bargaining model with private correlated values. The correlation of values is modeled via the global games information structure: values depend on the unobserved quality of the object...